国库库存纳入货币统计口径探析——基于货币政策中介目标有效性标准视角

随着我国宏观经济的快速持续增长,以及财政体制改革的深化,国库收支运行出现了新态势,突出表现为国库库存规模的不断递增,并且波动幅度不断加大,国库库存已经成为影响货币供应量的重要因素,在货币操作中需要密切关注国库资金的运行变化。首先描述了近年来我国国库库存变化的特征,然后基于货币政策中介目标有效性的可测性、可控性和相关性三个标准对现有货币统计口径和加入国库库存后的货币统计口径进行比较。从实证的结果来看,新的货币口径要优于原有的货币口径,因此将国库库存纳入货币中介目标监控体系,才能更好地反映宏观经济金融的实际情况,进一步提高货币政策的有效性。最后提出了将地方国库库存纳入货币统计口径,完善国库集中收付改革,推进地方国库现金管理三个政策建议。     

股份合作制：中西部农村信用合作社改革方向

关于农村信用合作社改革与发展方向的争议很多。文章首先分析中西部农村信用合作社面临的实际运行机制与合作金融原则、农村资金外流与服务“三农”宗旨、较低抗险能力与较大风险压力、较低服务能力与较高服务需求等四大矛盾看其改革方向;然后从发挥自身优势回归“合作”属性、尊重资本本性增强自身实力、增强造血功能优化治理结构、提升服务能力满足服务需求、优化内部结构把握改革方向等五个方面论述中西部农村信用合作社坚持股份合作制改革方向的绝对必要性;最后提出坚持股份合作制改革的战略性思路：坚守合作制原则并构建股份制产权和治理结构,积极转变经营模式并主动拓宽利润来源渠道,联系政府依靠农民并加快健全内外监管体系,稳步增加服务种类并不断优化支农服务方式。     

Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis

This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001–09. The results show that banks with weaker structural liquidity and higher leverage in the pre-crisis period were more likely to fail afterward. The likelihood of bank failure also increases with pre-crisis bank risk-taking. In the cross-section, the smaller domestically-oriented banks were relatively more vulnerable to liquidity risk, while the large cross-border (Global) banks were more vulnerable to solvency risk due to excessive leverage. In fact, a 3.5 percentage point increase in the pre-crisis capital buffers of Global banks would have caused a 48 percentage point in their probability of failure during the crisis. The results support the proposed Basel III regulations on structural liquidity and leverage, but suggest that emphasis should be placed on the latter, particularly for the systemically-important institutions. Macroeconomic and monetary conditions are also shown to be related with the likelihood of bank failure, providing a case for the introduction of a macro-prudential approach to banking regulation.     

The effects of corporate reputation perceptions of the general public on shareholder value

Superior corporate reputations can have strategic value for firms. Of the “multiple reputations” associated with each firm, we focus on the perceptions of the general public. The public represents the most widely defined stakeholder group but has attracted the least amount of research interest to date. Drawing on data for German firms, this study demonstrates that superior reputation perceptions issued by the general public increase shareholder value, as measured by future stock returns. This study provides a more nuanced understanding for this novel finding. Applying a conceptualization of reputation that balances both its affective and cognitive components, we find that reputation perceptions that are driven by nonfinancial aspects are more value relevant in the future than reputation perceptions that are driven by previous financial performance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国引入股票指数期货的问题及对策

股票指数期货是一种新型的金融衍生工具,具有套期保值和价格发现的双重功能。在剖析股指期货特征的基础上,分析了我国开展股指期货的前景和障碍,并为最大限度发挥股指期货对股票市场作用,制定相应的对策。     

股票资金流强度的实证研究及评测

在资金博弈的股票市场中,资金流向确认与计算是金融工程的一大理论难题,国内有学者在现有资金流计算方法基础上,提出了股票资金流强度模型和构建了股票资金流指数指标体系。根据统计分析方法利用SPSS软件对股票资金流强度和股价波动环比增长率进行相关性分析,进而实证股票资金流强度指标的有效性。实证结果表明股票资金流强度与股价波动环比增长率呈线性趋势,从而利用股票资金流强度指标可以很好地预测股价的变化。     

Entrepreneurship and Risk Aversion

Evans and Jovanovic (1989, Journal of Political Economy 97(4), 808–827) find that wealth is an important determinant of business startups due to liquidity constraints. However, Cressy (2000, Economic Letters 66, 235–240) argues that if risk aversion is a negative function of wealth, Evans and Jovanovic’s empirical results could be spurious and the positive effect of wealth could be due to the omission of risk aversion in the regression equation. In other words, according to Cressy, one’s wealth does not have any effect on business startups once the degree of risk aversion is accounted for. This paper attempts to investigate the validity of Cressy’s conjecture. We empirically examine the effect of wealth on the transition into self-employment, while allowing for the effect of risk aversion. Our empirical findings show that Evans and Jovanovic’s (1989) results are robust, i.e., wealth has a positive effect on business startups even allowing for the confounding effects of risk aversion.     

我国金融资产管理公司实行股份制改革的思考

本文探讨了资产管理公司在体制、机制等方面存在的问题与不足,探索性的提出中国金融资产管理公司的发展方向,即实行股份制改革,实现投资主体多元化,将金融资产管理公司转变为“产权清晰、权责明确、政企分开、管理科学”的、以市场规则为原则的市场化经营性公司,并论证其必然性与可行性。     

我国上市公司股票回购研究

股票回购在发达国家早已是一种非常成熟的资本运作方式,而在我国却是一项金融创新的举措。我国资本市场股票回购,虽刚刚起步,但亦日益成为人们关注的焦点。股票回购对我国资本市场具有现实意义。目前,我国上市公司股票回购的实践中存在较大的障碍和急待解决的问题,为此,必须采取相应措施。